That Curry line makes zero sense when you break it down. Contest shooting and game shooting are completely different animals. He's 39 years old, hasn't won since 2015, and the format rewards rhythm over pure accuracy. Meanwhile everyone's betting him because of name recognition.

Dame at +350 is way better value - he's clutch under pressure and actually practices these contest formats during All-Star week. The books are just riding Curry's reputation here.

I've been diving deep into the All-Star prop markets since they opened and there's definitely some value hiding in the longer odds. Last month I tracked every 3-point contest since 2018 and found that the winner came from outside the top 3 favorites 60% of the time.

The format really matters here - 30 seconds is a sprint, not a marathon. I watched Buddy Hield practice these rapid-fire sessions during warmups all season and his release is mechanical perfection. At +650 on MyStake he's my dark horse pick.

Curry's regular season percentage doesn't translate to contest success. Different pressure, different timing, different ball rotation. I'm staying away from the chalk and looking at guys who've actually performed in this specific format before.

Ran the numbers on contest vs regular season correlation and it's weaker than most people think. Since 2015, winners averaged 41.2% from three in the regular season leading up to All-Star weekend, while Curry this year is at 47.2% - significant outlier.

The money ball positioning (corners and top of arc) also favors guys who practice those specific spots. Hield and Lillard both have higher corner 3% than Curry this season. At current odds, the expected value calculation actually favors the field over Curry straight up.

Breaking down the contest mechanics round by round, here's where the value sits:

Round 1 eliminates bottom performers - Curry's floor is high but his ceiling in rapid-fire isn't what it used to be. Round 2 gets tighter and that's where nerves show. Finals are pure clutch performance.

I'm tracking these specific angles: Lillard's 4th quarter shooting (89% FT, elite under pressure), Hield's catch-and-shoot release time (0.4 seconds faster than Curry), and Trae's home/road splits (shoots better away from crowd noise).

The books on BetOnline are offering round-by-round props too - Curry to advance past Round 1 at -180 might be the safer play than outright winner at +280. Risk management over home run swings.

New to betting these All-Star props - is there a typical strategy for contest betting vs regular game props? Like should I be looking at different stats or is it just about finding value in the odds?

Also wondering about bankroll sizing for novelty bets like this. Is it worth putting serious money on or just fun betting?

I stick to small unit sizes on these specialty props - maybe 0.5% of bankroll max. The variance is huge because it's essentially one performance determining everything, unlike a season-long futures bet.

That said, the value hunting approach makes sense. I'm eyeing the +450 and longer shots rather than trying to pick between Curry and Dame at short odds. Better risk-reward ratio even if the hit rate is lower.

That +280 on Curry is straight garbage when you break down what actually matters in these contests. His 47% season rate means nothing when he's firing off 25 shots in 60 seconds with money balls worth double. The rhythm is completely different from in-game shooting.

I watched him struggle in the 2022 finals round against Towns - went 3-for-8 on his money ball rack and that cost him the title. Contest shooting is about rapid release under time pressure, not the methodical catch-and-shoot he gets in games. Dame's +650 is where the real value sits - guy's been automatic from the logo all season and thrives under pressure.

That 2021 struggle @torontotiltmaster mentioned is the key data point everyone's missing. Curry went 5-for-16 in the first round that year, couldn't find his rhythm with the rack positioning. The contest format rewards quick release more than accuracy - you're looking at 27 attempts in 70 seconds including the money ball rack.

I'm tracking value on the longer shots instead. Lillard at +650 makes sense given his range, and Haliburton at +850 is interesting since he's shooting 43% from deep but has that quick trigger release. The Tenobet contest props section actually breaks down historical first-round elimination rates - 60% of favorites get bounced before the finals.

For unit sizing, I'm with maritimemadison on the 0.5% max. These are pure variance plays where one hot or cold streak decides everything.